Key aerial and missile strike events targeting Kyiv, 2022–2026. Larger dots indicate confirmed casualties. Hover for details.
Targeting Ukraine's Logistics
RAND and ISW analysts have characterized Russia's 2025–2026 aerial campaign as deliberately targeting Ukraine's economic resilience — warehouses, rail junctions, and energy facilities — ahead of any potential negotiated settlement.
Strategic Context
Why Arctic Routes Matter
Climate change is opening Arctic shipping lanes — including the Northern Sea Route — that could compress global trade distances by up to 40% compared to traditional routes. Russia controls the longest stretch of Arctic coastline and charges transit fees on the Northern Sea Route.
One Adversary, Two Theaters
The U.S. is simultaneously managing a hot war in Ukraine's European theater and a cold-but-intensifying Arctic competition, both driven by Russian strategic ambition, with limited budgetary and diplomatic bandwidth to address both.