Britain's Political Earthquake: Reform UK's Rise
May 8, 2026
~30%Reform UK Vote ShareProjected national equivalent, May 2025 local elections
103 yrsLabour's Wales DominanceContinuous Labour representation in Wales since 1922
10+English Councils FlippedCouncils won by Reform in the May 2025 cycle
−20ptsConservative Vote Share DropFrom 43.6% in 2019 to ~15% in 2025 local equivalent
#2UK Intel Value to USGCHQ is the NSA's largest Five Eyes partner by intercept volume
National vote share at general elections + projected local equivalent (2025). Shaded backgrounds indicate party in government.
2016 — Brexit vote2019 — Johnson majority2020 — COVID-192022 — Truss crisis2023 — Reform rebrand2024 — Labour landslide2025 — Reform council surge2026 — Wales lost
Key Questions
Sources: UK Electoral Commission · BBC Elections 2025 · UK in a Changing Europe · Policy Exchange · YouGov
Data sources
UK Local Election Results 2025· UK Electoral CommissionWelsh Senedd Election Results Archive· Senedd Cymru / Welsh ParliamentBritain Predicts: Vote Share Tracker· YouGov UKUK in a Changing Europe — Electoral Realignment Report· UK in a Changing EuropeFive Eyes Intelligence Sharing Explainer· Chatham HouseReform UK General Election 2024 Results· BBC News ElectionsHistorical UK General Election Data 1945–2024· British Electoral Facts (Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher)AUKUS and UK Defence Procurement Commitments· UK Ministry of Defence