Former Texas Attorney General; Trump-aligned populist faction
Total Spending
$12.3M
Endorsed by: Donald Trump
George P. Bush
TX Establishment
Former Texas Land Commissioner; Bush family / establishment wing
Total Spending
$8.5M
Endorsed by: Texas GOP Establishment
Public Campaign Events — Final Week
* May 25 = final day of campaigning. Both candidates: 0 public events.
Race Context
Senate Balance
Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority heading into 2026 midterms. Texas is a must-hold seat.
Zero Public Events
Both candidates scheduled no public appearances on Memorial Day, the final day of campaigning. TV saturation replaced retail politics.
Texas Media Markets
Texas contains multiple top-20 media markets (DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Austin), making statewide TV campaigns exceptionally expensive.
Ideological Proxy War
National GOP factions are using this race to test Trump-aligned populism vs. traditional Texas Republican establishment strength in the largest red state.
The Stakes
Two Republican candidates spent the final day of the Texas Senate runoff entirely off the street — no rallies, no handshakes — while blanketing the state's expensive TV markets in an unprecedented wave of ads. The race is a proxy war between Trump-aligned populism and the Texas GOP establishment, and whoever wins could tip the balance of a razor-thin Senate majority.
Combined Spend
$20.8M
Outside Group Total
$11.2M
Final Day Events
0
National Faction Showdown
MAGA Faction — Paxton
MAGA Inc. ($4.7M) and Texas Patriots PAC ($1.9M) have invested heavily in Paxton, treating the Texas race as a proof-of-concept for Trump-style populism in statewide general elections. A Paxton win validates the MAGA theory of the GOP primary electorate.
Establishment Faction — Bush
The McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund ($3.2M) and Lone Star Leadership Fund ($1.4M) back Bush as the electable, governable alternative. The establishment views this as a last stand for institutionalist Republicanism in Texas.