Sticky vs. flexible CPI series follow Atlanta Federal Reserve definitions. Sticky components are those that reprice less frequently than once every 4.33 months on average. Flexible components reprice at higher frequency. Data points are biannual approximations of monthly readings from the Atlanta Fed Sticky Price CPI publication and BLS headline CPI releases. Federal Funds Rate values represent period averages. Cost-push contribution estimates are approximate decompositions for 2025.

Sticky inflation is the component of the CPI that monetary policy tools address least effectively. It represents structural cost escalation embedded in contracts, leases, and service-sector pricing cycles. With tariff-driven goods costs and an energy supply shock layering on top of unresolved sticky services inflation, the CBO flagged material upside inflation risk in its January 2026 outlook — before the Iran energy shock compounded the picture further.