Stagflation Watch: GDP, Inflation & the Iran Shock
April 30, 2026
Q1 2026 GDP GROWTH
+2.0%
annualized rate, advance estimate
PCE INFLATION
3.8%
highest reading in 3 years
OIL PRICE (WTI)
$126
per barrel — 4-year high
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS
198K
below 200K; labor market resilient
FED FUNDS RATE
4.75%
FOMC holding amid stagflation risk
STRAIT OF HORMUZ — FAST FACTS
20%
of global oil supply
17%
of global LNG
21M
barrels/day in transit
21 mi
narrowest navigable width
Key exporters: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar
KEY EVENTS TIMELINE
Oct 1 2025Government Shutdown Begins
43-day federal shutdown disrupts contracting, consumer confidence, and government data releases.
Nov 13 2025Iran Conflict Escalates
U.S. military engagement with Iran triggers rapid oil price spike; Strait of Hormuz traffic constrained.
Nov 13 2025Shutdown Ends
Congress passes a continuing resolution; government resumes operations after 43 days.
Dec 10 2025Fed Hikes Rates +25bps
Federal Reserve reverses its cutting cycle, raising rates to 4.75% amid energy-driven inflation fears.
Mar 19 2026FOMC Holds at 4.75%
Powell signals the Fed cannot treat war-driven inflation the same as demand-side inflation; rate path uncertain.
Apr 30 2026BEA: Q1 GDP +2.0%
Commerce Department releases advance GDP estimate — a rebound from Q4 contraction, but inflation surges simultaneously.
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Federal Reserve · U.S. Energy Information Administration
Data sources
GDP Advance Estimate Q1 2026 (BEA National Income and Product Accounts)· U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisPCE Price Index — Personal Income and Outlays· U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisWeekly Initial Jobless Claims· U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / Department of LaborFederal Funds Rate Historical Data· Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemWTI Crude Oil Spot Price· U.S. Energy Information AdministrationStrait of Hormuz World Oil Transit Chokepoint· U.S. Energy Information AdministrationFOMC Meeting Statements and Press Conferences· Federal Reserve Board