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The Fed held rates near zero through 2021, then launched the fastest hiking cycle since the 1980s as CPI breached 9%. After rates peaked at 5.5% and inflation retreated, the Fed cut through 2024 — only to resume hiking in 2026 when an oil-driven supply shock sent CPI back above 6%.
Plain-language answers to the questions driving this crisis.
All figures reflect data available as of Sept 21, 2026. Federal funds rate, CPI, and mortgage data sourced from Federal Reserve FRED, BLS, and Freddie Mac PMMS respectively. WTI crude oil from EIA. 10-year Treasury yield from Bloomberg. Median home price estimates from FRED (MSPUS). Monthly payment estimates assume 20% down, 30-year fixed rate, principal and interest only. Presidential band overlay is historical context only and does not imply causation.