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The 8.7% adjustment applied in January 2023 was the highest since 1981. It reflected a 9.1% CPI-W spike driven by post-pandemic supply chain collapse and energy prices. Projected 2027 figures echo that era — driven this time by broad import tariffs rather than energy shocks.
COLA spikes are driven by inflation, not by which party holds the White House. The current tariff-era trajectory toward 4–5% echoes the stagflation of the late 1970s and the post-pandemic surge of 2022–2023.