elevated by Hormuz risk premium & OPEC+ discipline
STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHARE
~20%
of global oil trade transits this chokepoint
SHELL Q2 2025 PROFIT
$4.8B
year-ago baseline — profits more than doubled YoY
Brent Crude — Quarterly Average ($/bbl)
Q2 2022: UKRAINE INVASION
Q4 2022: OPEC+ 2M CUT
Q3 2023: SAUDI CUT EXTENDED
Q1 2026: HORMUZ TENSIONS
Q2 2026: SHELL $9.8B
Brent crude peaked above $113/bbl in Q2 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, then declined through 2023–2024 before climbing again as Hormuz tensions and OPEC+ production discipline pushed the benchmark back toward $95/bbl in mid-2026.