Ukraine has spent most of 2024 and 2025 methodically targeting the refineries and pipeline hubs that funnel roughly 30 cents of every ruble into Russia's federal budget. On October 2, 2026, a strike hit one of the largest such facilities — combining a major refinery with a Druzhba pipeline hub. Russia responded by forcing partial closures of three bridges over the Dnipro in Kyiv, trading infrastructure blow for infrastructure blow on a stalemated front. The charts below track the revenue trend, the strike campaign, and the downstream exposure for European energy consumers.

Revenue figures are calendar-year estimates. Budget share percentages reflect IMF Article IV consultation data and Russian Finance Ministry disclosures as reported by Reuters and Bloomberg. European import dependence figures are approximate 2024 estimates based on EIA and Eurostat data. Strike log compiled from ISW daily updates and Bloomberg reporting.