China's Rare Earth Stranglehold
May 5, 2026
~87%
China Processing Share
of global rare earth processing capacity, 2024
2×
Mountain Pass Bankruptcies
2015 and 2019, partly from Chinese price suppression
900 lbs
REE-Dependent Weapons
of rare earths in every F-35 fighter jet
−86%
Price Collapse
cerium oxide price drop, 2011 peak to 2015 trough
1 mine
US Mine Output
Mountain Pass, CA — sole US operating rare earth mine
China Mine Share vs. Cerium Oxide Price, 2000–2024
Cerium Price (USD/kg, left axis)
China Mine Share % (right axis)
Democrat admin
Republican admin
· Click ! markers for key eventsChina's export quota manipulation in 2010–2011 sent cerium oxide prices up 3,400% from 2009 levels. After the WTO ruled against China's restrictions in 2014, Beijing switched tactics — flooding the market with supply to collapse prices and bankrupt Western competitors.
2010: Export quota cut 40%
Beijing slashed rare earth export quotas, triggering a global price spike and forcing Western buyers to scramble.
2011: Peak $148/kg
Cerium oxide hits ~$148/kg. Western mining projects attract investment; Molycorp restarts Mountain Pass.
2014: WTO ruling
WTO rules China's export restrictions illegal. Beijing responds by removing quotas but flooding market with supply, collapsing prices.
2015: Bankruptcy #1
Molycorp files Chapter 11. Cerium at $8.50/kg — below operating cost for most Western producers.
2019: Bankruptcy #2
MP Mine Solutions (successor) files Chapter 11 again. Chinese pricing makes sustained Western operation nearly impossible.
Frequently Asked Questions
Data Sources
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries · World Bank Commodity Markets · Dept of Defense Supply Chain Reports · BloombergNEF · MP Materials SEC Filings
Data sources
Mineral Commodity Summaries — Rare Earths· U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)Critical Minerals and the Clean Energy Transition· International Energy Agency (IEA)Supply Chain Resilience Executive Order 14017· White House / Biden AdministrationRare Earth Elements: A Review of Production, Processing, Recycling, and Associated Environmental Issues· U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)China's Rare Earth Industry and Export Regime· Congressional Research ServiceMP Materials Annual Report (SEC Form 10-K)· MP Materials Corp. / U.S. Securities and Exchange CommissionWorld Bank Commodity Markets — Rare Earth Prices· World BankSecuring Defense-Critical Supply Chains· U.S. Department of Defense