JCPOA Signed

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations, placing limits on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

U.S. Withdraws from JCPOA

President Trump withdraws the United States from the JCPOA and announces a 'maximum pressure' sanctions campaign targeting Iran's economy, oil exports, and banking sector.

Tanker Attacks Begin

Multiple commercial tankers are attacked or sabotaged in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. attributes the attacks to Iran. Iran denies responsibility.

Iran Seizes British Tanker

Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizes the British-flagged Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the UK's detention of an Iranian vessel off Gibraltar.

Soleimani Killed

U.S. drone strike kills IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani near Baghdad airport. Iran vows revenge and launches ballistic missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq.

Mercer Street Attack

An Israeli-managed tanker, the Mercer Street, is struck by a drone attack off Oman. The U.S., UK, and Israel attribute the attack to Iran.

Houthi Shipping Campaign Begins

Following the outbreak of the Gaza war, Houthi forces in Yemen begin targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians. Iran-linked proxy activity intensifies across the region.

U.S. & UK Strike Houthi Targets

U.S. and UK forces launch strikes against Houthi military infrastructure in Yemen in response to ongoing attacks on Red Sea shipping. Houthis vow to continue operations.

U.S.-Iran MOU on De-escalation

A Memorandum of Understanding is established between the U.S. and Iran governing de-escalation communication channels, providing a diplomatic brake on direct confrontation.

Attacks Extend to Persian Gulf

Iran escalates shipping attacks from the Red Sea into the Persian Gulf proper. WSJ reports U.S. military planners are developing options for broader escalation.

MOU Nears Expiration

The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding governing de-escalation channels nears expiration, removing a key diplomatic brake on direct confrontation.

Trump Threatens to Bomb Oman

President Trump threatens to strike Oman — Iran's primary diplomatic back-channel to the U.S. — dramatically raising stakes and eliminating the main diplomatic off-ramp.