Oil Market Under Pressure

April 24, 2026

BARRELS/DAY THROUGH HORMUZ~21M≈20% of global petroleum liquids

CURRENT BRENT PRICE$87/bblelevated by conflict risk premium est. $6–10

GDP HIT PER 10% PRICE RISE−0.15ppIMF April 2026 World Economic Outlook

OPEC+ SPARE CAPACITY~4.5M bpdbuffer if Hormuz flow disrupted

PRICE VOLATILITY INDEXOVX 42CBOE Oil Volatility Index, elevated vs. 28 baseline

Brent Crude Price — Jan 2020 to Apr 2026 (USD/bbl)Source: EIA STEO

Republican

Democrat

Downstream Price Transmission — Impact of a $10/bbl Brent Rise

Product	Lag (wks)	Pass-Through	Note
Gasoline (regular)	2	80%	per gallon, ~$0.08 per $10/bbl Brent rise
Diesel / Heating Oil	2	90%	per gallon; higher crude-to-product ratio
Jet Fuel	3	95%	airline fuel surcharges follow within weeks
Natural Gas (correlated)	8	30%	weaker link in North America; stronger in Europe
Fertilizers (nitrogen)	12	60%	natural gas feedstock; food price cascade follows
Plastics / Petrochemicals	6	45%	naphtha feedstock; industrial input cost
Food CPI (aggregate)	16	20%	transport, fertilizer, packaging combined effect
Headline CPI (broad)	12	10%	IMF: sustained 10% oil rise → +0.4pp global CPI

GDP Impact per 10% Oil Rise

-0.15pp

CPI Impact per 10% Oil Rise

+0.4pp

Baseline Oil Assumption

$83/bbl

Disruption Scenario

$130/bbl

IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026

Data sources