U.S. FLU-ASSOCIATED DEATHS BY SEASONCDC MODELED ESTIMATES
Deaths plummeted in 2020–21 and 2021–22 as COVID-era social distancing and masking suppressed flu transmission. The subsequent rebound toward historical norms reframes the mRNA approval as timely: the pandemic-era respite is over, and flu's annual toll is returning to the 12,000–52,000 range.
VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS (%)
VACCINATION COVERAGE (%)
MANUFACTURING METHOD COMPARISON
Egg-Based
REFORMULATION
26wks
WHO must predict circulating strains 6 months in advance; poor match years cut efficacy to ~19%
since 1945
Cell-Based
REFORMULATION
20wks
Avoids egg-adaptation mutations; somewhat faster but still requires advance strain selection
since 2012
Recombinant Protein
REFORMULATION
16wks
No eggs or live virus needed; faster but still 4-month lead time
since 2013
mRNA
REFORMULATION
6wks
Sequence updated digitally; manufacturing process unchanged regardless of strain — closest antigenic matching possible
since 2026
KEY QUESTIONS
✦
FDA APPROVAL — 2026-08-05
Moderna's mRNA-1010 becomes the first mRNA vaccine authorized for a disease other than COVID-19 in the United States. It targets adults 50 and older — the population that accounts for the overwhelming majority of flu's annual death toll of up to 52,000 Americans.