The Worker's Squeeze: Wages, Prices & the May Day Moment
May 1, 2026
REAL WAGE CHANGE (2021–2025)
−4.2%
Cumulative loss in purchasing power for non-supervisory workers
TARIFF-DRIVEN PRICE RISE
+6.8%
Estimated consumer goods price increase from 2025–26 tariff regime
MAJOR WORK STOPPAGES (2025)
33
BLS-tracked stoppages — highest count since early 2000s
CITIES WITH MAY DAY ACTIONS
180+
Coordinated labor & immigrant rights demonstrations, May 1 2026
FED FUNDS RATE
4.75%
FOMC held rate amid inflation-recession squeeze, Q1 2026
Real vs. Nominal Average Hourly Earnings
Non-supervisory workers, 2000–2025 · Real wages adjusted to 2021 dollars · Presidential bands overlaid
Real wages (2021 $)Nominal wagesRepublicanDemocrat
Key finding: Real wages peaked in 2020 during pandemic-era labor shortages ($25.47/hr in 2021 dollars) and have fallen in every subsequent year, reaching $23.18 in 2025 — a four-year cumulative loss of 8.8% in purchasing power, compounded by tariff-driven price surges.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics · Federal Reserve FRED · BLS Work Stoppages Summary · AFL-CIO
Data sources
Real Earnings — Production & Nonsupervisory Employees· U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsConsumer Price Index (CPI-U) — All Urban Consumers· U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / FREDMajor Work Stoppages Annual Summary· U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsFederal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS)· Federal Reserve / FREDAverage Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees (CES0500000008)· U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsTariff Impact on Consumer Prices — Economic Analysis· Peterson Institute for International EconomicsHistory of May Day in the United States· AFL-CIO