Hezbollah's long-time Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah killed in a precision Israeli airstrike on Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh.
2024 11
DIPLOMACY
U.S.-French brokered ceasefire takes effect
A 60-day ceasefire brokered by the United States and France halts active hostilities. Israel retains right to strike Hezbollah infrastructure deemed an active threat.
2025 01
DIPLOMACY
Ceasefire extended under ongoing U.S. pressure
Initial 60-day ceasefire window expires but truce continues under U.S. diplomatic pressure; implementation of UN Resolution 1701 remains incomplete.
2025 02
MILITARY
Israel conducts strikes on Hezbollah weapons depots
Israeli Air Force targets Hezbollah arms storage sites in the Bekaa Valley, citing active threat clause of ceasefire terms.
2025 04
DIPLOMACY
Trump administration opens Iran nuclear talks
U.S. and Iran begin indirect negotiations on nuclear program, complicating Israeli decision-making on Lebanon escalation given Iran-Hezbollah link.
2025 05
POLITICS
Ben-Gvir publicly demands Lebanon escalation
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir pressures Netanyahu to intensify military operations against Hezbollah, signaling coalition dissatisfaction with current posture.
2025 05
MARKET
Peace deal prediction market collapses to 0.4%
Prediction market odds for a permanent Israel-Hezbollah peace deal by May 31, 2026 fall from 3% to 0.4% — an 87% collapse in 24 hours.