Lebanon Ceasefire: Fragile Truce, Fragile State

UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ends the 34-day 2006 Lebanon War. Hezbollah required to withdraw north of the Litani River; UNIFIL mandate expanded to ~15,000 troops.

UNIFIL reinforced with European and other international contingents to monitor the Blue Line. Hezbollah withdrawal described as incomplete by Israeli and UN observers.

UN reports and Israeli intelligence assessments conclude Hezbollah has rebuilt and expanded its arsenal beyond pre-2006 levels, with Iranian and Syrian support.

One day after Hamas attacks Israel, Hezbollah begins cross-border rocket and anti-tank fire in solidarity, opening a 'support front' along the Lebanon-Israel border.

Israeli government orders evacuation of ~80,000 residents from communities within range of Hezbollah fire in northern Galilee.

Israel kills Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in a Beirut airstrike, sharply escalating tensions and triggering threats of major retaliation.

Thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies detonate simultaneously across Lebanon, killing dozens and wounding thousands in an unprecedented Israeli intelligence operation.

Israeli airstrike kills Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in his Beirut bunker, decapitating the organization's senior leadership.

Israel launches ground operations into southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah tunnel networks and launch sites along the Blue Line.

A 60-day ceasefire takes effect. Terms: Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River; Lebanese Armed Forces deploy south; IDF withdraws from Lebanese territory over 60 days.

Original ceasefire deadline passes. Full IDF withdrawal incomplete; Hezbollah-free zone only partially established. Deadline extended under U.S. pressure.

IDF strikes a weapons depot in the Bekaa Valley, citing ongoing intelligence of Hezbollah rearming in violation of ceasefire terms.

Trump administration publicly links Lebanon ceasefire durability to Saudi-Israel normalization and Iranian nuclear negotiations as a combined diplomatic package.

Israel conducts strikes on southern Lebanon as recently as Tuesday, targeting infrastructure identified as Hezbollah-linked during ongoing withdrawal monitoring.

Current ceasefire appears to be holding as of Friday. No confirmed Hezbollah rocket fire in 10 days. U.S. diplomats describe it as a potential foundation for broader regional deal.