K-Shaped Economy: Wall Street Up, Main Street Down
●ECONOMY · TIER 1 ANALYSIS
Consumer confidence hits a 74-year low in March 2026. The same week, Goldman Sachs reports its 2nd-highest revenue quarter on record. The divergence is not a coincidence — it's the system working as designed.
43.7Consumer SentimentMarch 2026 — 74-year low (Univ. of Michigan)
$15.1BGoldman Q1 Revenue2nd-highest single quarter on record
7,043S&P 500All-time high — same week as sentiment nadir
3.3%March 2026 CPIHormuz oil premium keeping inflation elevated
+38%Big-5 Trading Revenue YoYQ1 2026 vs Q1 2025 across top US banks
The K-Shaped Divergence: Consumer Sentiment vs. S&P 500
Monthly sentiment (left axis) vs. quarterly S&P 500 (right axis), Jan 2020 – Mar 2026
connectrealdots.comData through March 2026 · Not financial advice
Data sources
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index· University of Michigan / FREDGoldman Sachs Q1 2026 Earnings Release· Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.JPMorgan Chase Q1 2026 Earnings· JPMorgan Chase & Co.Morgan Stanley Q1 2026 Earnings· Morgan StanleyBank of America Q1 2026 Earnings· Bank of America CorporationCitigroup Q1 2026 Earnings· Citigroup Inc.Consumer Price Index — All Urban Consumers· U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsS&P 500 Historical Data· S&P Global / Yahoo FinanceK-Shaped Economy Analysis· Fortune