Oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield have moved in near-lockstep since the February 2026 blockade — both rising roughly 24% above their pre-conflict baselines. Analysts at the IMF note this correlation reflects a single cause: the market is charging a war tax on both commodities and credit. A credible diplomatic resolution would likely unwind both simultaneously, the IMF estimates, potentially stripping $12–18 from WTI and 20–35 basis points from the 10-year yield.

Analysis

War premium estimates are analyst approximations, not official government figures. WTI price and Treasury yield data as of September 1, 2026. Sources: Forbes, U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Monetary Fund.