per gallon as of Oct. 2026 — up ~70% year over year
HOUSEHOLD COST OF WAR
~$2,000
estimated loss per average U.S. household, per economist Mark Zandi
BRENT CRUDE
$104+
per barrel as conflict disrupts Persian Gulf oil flows
NFIB OPTIMISM
3-month low
small-business optimism fell in September 2026
U.S. average on-highway diesel prices held near $3.50–$3.70/gal through 2025. The start of the U.S.-Iran conflict in February 2026 disrupted Persian Gulf oil flows and sent Brent crude surging — pulling diesel prices with it. By October 2026, the national average had climbed sharply, with the Richmond, Virginia area reaching $6.15/gal — roughly 70% above year-ago levels.
Brent Crude Trajectory
Key Events
2026 / 02
U.S.-Iran war begins
Persian Gulf oil flows disrupted; Brent crude begins sharp climb.