Iran's Oil Blockade: Cracks in the Enforcement Wall

Three tanker breaches don't end a blockade — but they expose its limits. China absorbs ~90% of Iranian crude through an opaque shadow fleet of 152 vessels at peak. Even under a naval posture shift, enforcement gaps persist as long as Beijing refuses secondary-sanctions compliance. The 2019 playbook (waivers → waiver expiry → collapse) took 18 months to cut exports by 85%. The 2025 version started from a much higher baseline.