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Each spike aligns with a Houthi escalation milestone. The $100 threshold — breached and sustained — is the immediate driver of the airline cost spiral documented in the tabs below.
From the first Red Sea missile salvo in October 2023 to the Riyadh airport strike in October 2026 — each event is a link in the chain from military escalation to aviation economics.
Houthis launch first salvo of ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel; Red Sea campaign begins
militaryHouthis seize Galaxy Leader cargo ship in Red Sea — first vessel capture
maritimeU.S. launches Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect Red Sea shipping
militaryU.S. and UK conduct first joint airstrikes on Houthi targets inside Yemen
militaryMajor container lines reroute around Cape of Good Hope; global shipping costs spike
economicHouthi drone strike kills one person in Tel Aviv — longest-range strike recorded
militaryU.S.-Iran direct confrontation escalates; tanker insurance rates surge 40%
economicHouthis strike Aramco facility in eastern Saudi Arabia — first confirmed infrastructure hit
militaryHouthi missiles target regional Saudi airport — Saudi coalition vows retaliation
militaryU.S. military completes withdrawal from Iraq — regional force posture shifts
militaryHouthis strike King Khalid International Airport, Riyadh — 3 killed including airline pilot; Saudia jet hit
militaryDelta Air Lines cuts 2026 profit forecast, explicitly cites Middle East jet fuel costs
economicCRUDE PRICE AND FUEL INDEX FIGURES ARE WELL-RESEARCHED ESTIMATES BASED ON EIA AND IATA REPORTING. INSURANCE SURCHARGES FROM LLOYD'S MARKET PARTICIPANT ESTIMATES. ALL VALUES IN USD.