Oil Shock & Rate Shock: The Stagflation Trap
April 28, 2026
STRAIT THROUGHPUT
20%
of global petroleum liquids daily (EIA)
WTI CRUDE SURGE
+18%
since Hormuz disruption began Apr 2026
FED FUNDS RATE
5.50%
current target, May 2026 meeting pending
S&P 500 YTD
−11%
equity drawdown amid dual shock pressure
INSURANCE SPIKE
+340%
Gulf tanker war-risk premium increase
Republican administrationDemocrat administrationKey shock event (hover)
Key Questions
Sources:U.S. Energy Information Administration·Federal Reserve (FRED)·S&P Global·World Bank Commodity Markets
Data sources
Strait of Hormuz — World Oil Transit Chokepoints· U.S. Energy Information AdministrationWTI Crude Oil Spot Price, Annual Average (DCOILWTICO)· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS)· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL)· U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FREDS&P 500 Historical Data· S&P Global / MacrotrendsShort-Term Energy Outlook — Global Petroleum Supply· U.S. Energy Information AdministrationWorld Bank Commodity Markets Outlook· World Bank GroupOil and Global Economy — Historical Shocks Analysis· International Monetary Fund