Hormuz Choke Point: Fertilizer Crisis at Planting Season
May 2, 2026
UREA PRICE SPIKE
+38%
spot price increase since Hormuz disruption began (Jan–May 2026)
GULF FERTILIZER TRADE
~18M MT
annual fertilizer tonnage transiting Persian Gulf shipping lanes
POTASH MARKET STRESS
40%
of global potash trade lost when Russia/Belarus exports disrupted in 2022
YIELD LOSS RISK
≥50%
crop yield reduction without adequate nitrogen in developing-world farms
MALNUTRITION LAG
12–18 mo
typical delay before supply shocks appear in malnutrition statistics
FERTILIZER & FOOD PRICE INDEX — 20-YEAR VIEW WITH CRISIS EVENTS
Fertilizer Index
Food Price Index
2014–2016 = 100 baselineUrea Spot Price (USD / Metric Ton) — Quarterly 2020–2026
Northern Hemisphere Planting Urgency
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
■ Peak planting ■ High urgency ■ Moderate ■ Low
Key Questions
Sources: FAO Food Price Index · World Bank Fertilizer Commodity Data · UN Comtrade · IEA Gulf Shipping Reports · USDA PSD Database
Data sources
FAO Food Price Index — historical monthly data· Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsWorld Bank Fertilizer Price Data (Pink Sheet)· World BankUN Comtrade — fertilizer export flows by country· United Nations Statistics DivisionUSDA PSD — Production, Supply and Distribution database· U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural ServiceIEA — Strait of Hormuz chokepoint analysis· U.S. Energy Information AdministrationIFDC — Global fertilizer supply and demand report· International Fertilizer Development CenterFAO GIEWS — Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture· Food and Agriculture OrganizationIPC — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification· Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Global Platform