share of globally traded oil transiting the strait
FROZEN ASSETS DEMANDED
$6B
Iranian condition for diplomatic concessions
TANKER ROUTING SHIFT
Oman-side
vessels diverting through Oman-adjacent waters to avoid Iranian-controlled lanes
DOHA TALKS OUTCOME
No MOU
Iran declined to endorse U.S.-proposed Memorandum of Understanding
HORMUZ TRANSIT VOLUME INDEX — JAN–JUL 2026
Normalized index (100 = pre-conflict baseline). Based on EIA throughput patterns of 17–21 mb/d.
INDEX (100 = baseline)
TANKER ROUTING DISTRIBUTION
Standard Hormuz lane62%
suppressed
Oman-adjacent diversion30%
active
Halted / anchored8%
stalled
STRUCTURAL CONTEXT
GLOBAL OIL SHARE
~20%
DAILY THROUGHPUT (PRE-CONFLICT)
20-21 mb/d
ALT ROUTE
Oman-adjacent waters (partial capacity)
FROZEN ASSETS DISPUTED
$6 billion
U.S. APPROACH
Maximum pressure + back-channel diplomacy
IRAN DEMAND
Tangible economic relief before diplomatic concessions
ANALYSIS: KEY QUESTIONS
DATA NOTE: Transit volume index normalized to 100 = pre-conflict baseline (est. Jan–May 2026 average). Oil price figures are EIA-anchored illustrative estimates. Routing percentages are illustrative based on reported diversion activity. Sources: U.S. EIA, Naked Capitalism, Reuters.