Iran / IRGC
Aggressor
Escalatory — using tanker attacks to maximize economic pressure on the West; hardline factions ascendant post-Khamenei.
Deter further U.S.-Israeli strikes; demonstrate Hormuz and surrounding waters are unnavigable without Iranian consent.
United States
Belligerent
Committed to degrading Iranian nuclear and military capability; CENTCOM managing maritime security response.
Prevent Iranian nuclear breakout; maintain freedom of navigation; avoid oil price shock that undermines domestic politics.
Israel
Co-Belligerent
Strike partner in June 2026 attacks; primary threat perception is Iranian nuclear capability.
Eliminate or permanently set back Iranian nuclear program; exploit succession vacuum.
China
Pivotal Neutral
Purchasing non-Iranian Gulf state crude; actively opposing any Iranian move to assert control over regional oil infrastructure.
Needs Gulf oil to flow; does not want Iranian dominance over Gulf infrastructure; triangulated pressure — neither fully supports Iran nor endorses U.S. military objectives.
Oman
Affected Neutral
Waters violated by July 7 tanker attacks; historically serves as back-channel between U.S. and Iran.
Preserve territorial integrity; maintain neutrality and mediation role.
OPEC+
Market Actor
Monitoring conflict impact; Saudi Arabia holds meaningful spare capacity but faces political complexity in deploying it.
Price stability; avoid permanent demand destruction from sustained high prices.