The GLP-1 Revolution: From Injection to Pill

PROJECTED MARKET SIZE

$100B+

annual obesity drug revenue by early 2030s

AVG. WEIGHT LOSS

10–15%

of body weight on GLP-1 therapy

KEY BARRIER REMOVED

Oral

first pill-form obesity treatment in the EU if approved

PRIOR BENCHMARK

Surgery

only previous method achieving comparable sustained weight loss

Global Obesity Drug Market Size

Analyst consensus estimates, 2021–2031. Dashed line marks the $100B threshold.

SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS / ANALYST CONSENSUS

Market Size ($B)

The Two-Company RaceNOVO NORDISK VS. ELI LILLY

Denmark

Novo Nordisk

Semaglutide (Ozempic / Wegovy / Rybelsus)

First oral GLP-1 obesity pill — EMA CHMP positive opinion May 2025

$430BMARKET CAP

United States

Eli Lilly

Tirzepatide (Mounjaro / Zepbound)

Highest average weight loss of any approved GLP-1 agent (20.9%)

$780BMARKET CAP

Key Questions5 QUESTIONS