making Germany acutely exposed to trade disruption
RED SEA SHIPPING INSURANCE SURGE
~10×
spike in war-risk premiums since Persian Gulf conflict escalated
EUROZONE MANUFACTURING PMI
45.8
June 2026 — below 50 signals contraction
G20 MEMBERS WITH IRAN SANCTIONS DIVERGENCE
2
U.S. and China hold structurally opposed positions at the table
German Goods Export Volume Index (2019 = 100)
Export Destinations — % of Total Goods Exports (2025)
European Union (ex-Germany)
51.2%
United States
10.4%
China
7.9%
United Kingdom
5.8%
Middle East & North Africa
3.1%
Other Asia-Pacific
8.6%
Rest of World
13%
Key Questions
Export volume and energy price indices use 2019 as base year (= 100). PMI values below 50 indicate sector contraction. Shipping insurance multiplier is indexed to the 2024 annual average pre-conflict baseline. G20 alignment positions reflect publicly stated government positions as of mid-2026.