per gallon, summer 2026 — the threshold voters call "painful"
U.S. FARM NET INCOME PEAK
$188B
2022 peak — farm income has declined sharply since
WEEKS TO 2026 MIDTERMS
~10
weeks remaining for the administration to shift economic sentiment
IOWA AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
#1
Iowa ranks first in U.S. corn and soybean exports — now hit by retaliatory tariffs
Annual Average U.S. Retail Gas Price ($/gal)
All grades, all formulations. Shaded bands show presidential administrations. Dashed line marks the $4.00 politically toxic threshold identified by polling.
Gas price
$4.00 threshold
Republican term
Democrat term
Key Inflection Points
2020
COVID-19 demand collapse
Global oil demand crashes; gas hits multi-decade lows.
2022
Russia invades Ukraine
Global energy shock pushes U.S. gas above $5/gal in June 2022; farm input costs spike.
2022
Farm income peak
USDA records $188B net farm income — highest in nominal terms.
2025
Retaliatory tariffs imposed
Trade partners respond to Trump tariffs; Iowa agricultural exports disrupted.
2026
Iran conflict / naval blockade
Regional conflict contributes to oil market volatility; gas climbs above $4.
2026
Cabinet road show
Energy Sec. Wright (NH) and Agriculture Sec. Rollins (IA) face voter anger on tour.