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Contract rates — negotiated monthly or quarterly between large shippers and carriers — peaked in early 2022 and entered a freight-recession trough through 2023, before resuming an upward trajectory driven by new tariff rounds and rising carrier operating costs beginning in 2025. The shaded bands mark presidential administrations.
PPI index rebased: January 2020 = 100. Contract rates: dry van, all lengths of haul. Diesel: weekly U.S. average on-highway price. PPI year-over-year figures are April 2026 vs. April 2025. Presidential administration bands are approximate and reflect dates of inauguration.