Europe's Rising Threat Curve
May 1, 2026
INCIDENTS IN 2024
47+
High-profile plots & attacks across EU/UK
NETHERLANDS THREAT LEVEL
4 / 5
AIVD assessment — 'substantial'
LONE-ACTOR SHARE
61%
of foiled plots since 2022, per Europol
YEARS SINCE FORTUYN
23
NL's first modern political assassination, 2002
Total
Foiled
Lone Actor
NETHERLANDS POLITICAL VIOLENCE TIMELINE
2002Pim Fortuyn assassinated
Far-left lone actor
2004Theo van Gogh murdered
Islamist lone actor
2019Utrecht tram attack (4 killed)
Islamist
2022AIVD raises threat level to 4/5
Government response
2023Multiple disrupted plots; AIVD annual report flags rise
Various
2025Plot against Dutch princesses foiled
33-year-old suspect
LONE ACTOR AGE PROFILE (RAND EUROPE DATABASE)
16–24
19%
25–34
38%
35–44
27%
45–54
11%
55+
5%
25–34 age group accounts for the largest share of lone-actor perpetrators in the RAND Europe database.
CONTEXT & ANALYSIS
Sources: Europol TE-SAT Reports 2019–2024 · AIVD Annual Threat Assessments · RAND Europe Lone-Actor Database · ACLED Political Violence Dataset · Last updated 2025-06
Data sources
Europol Terrorism Situation & Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2024· EuropolAIVD Annual Report 2023· General Intelligence and Security Service (Netherlands)RAND Europe Lone-Actor Terrorism Database· RAND CorporationACLED Political Violence & Protest Data — Europe· Armed Conflict Location & Event Data ProjectGlobal Terrorism Database· National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism (START), University of Maryland