Stagflation occurs when inflation rises while economic growth stalls. Trucking companies are caught in a double bind: diesel fuel costs are climbing alongside borrowing costs, as the Federal Reserve raises rates to fight inflation. Margins compress from both directions simultaneously — and those costs are passed downstream to consumers.

Roughly 20 percent of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When that chokepoint tightens, global crude benchmarks rise within days, and refined products — including diesel — follow within weeks. The U.S. Gulf Coast refining complex, which supplies much of the Southeast, is particularly exposed to those global price signals.

Diesel price increases do not appear on grocery receipts the same week. Contracts between shippers and carriers buffer the shock, but within four to eight weeks higher fuel surcharges work their way into freight bills, then into producer costs, and finally into retail prices. The September 2026 spike at the pump will be visible at checkout by late October.