estimated impact on core goods — Peterson Institute
FOMC CUTS PENCILED IN 2026
1
median projection, June 2026 SEP — down from 3–4 earlier
FED INFLATION TARGET
2.0%
PCE-based; CPI used as leading signal
CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR % CHANGE — HEADLINE VS. CORE — JAN 2022 – JUL 2026
HEADLINE CPI
CORE CPI
2% TARGET
CONTEXT — After peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, headline CPI fell steadily through 2024. The re-acceleration beginning in 2025 reflects a confluence of tariff pass-through and an energy shock. The July 2026 print (pending) will determine whether the single projected Fed cut survives the year.
EXPLAINER — KEY QUESTIONS
2026 CPI VALUES ARE EDITORIAL PROJECTIONS BASED ON CURRENT TRAJECTORY. JULY 2026 PRINT PENDING BLS RELEASE. ALL RATE-CUT SCENARIOS ARE ILLUSTRATIVE — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.