CAPE RATIO AT DOT-COM PEAK (2000)
~44x
last time valuations rivaled today's extremes
CAPE RATIO AT 1929 CRASH
~33x
preceded the Great Depression
PROJECTED DEBT-TO-GDP (2036)
~120%
CBO projection for 2036; current (2026) level ~101% of GDP
S&P 500 DRAWDOWN AFTER DOT-COM PEAK
~49%
peak-to-trough decline, 2000–2002
POLICY CONSTRAINT CONTEXT
At the dot-com peak and in 2008–2009, the Federal Reserve was able to cut rates aggressively to cushion the fall. Today, tariff-driven and energy-cost inflation constrains that option. The Congressional Budget Office projects federal debt approaching 120% of GDP by 2026, limiting fiscal stimulus capacity. The two traditional shock absorbers — monetary and fiscal policy — are operating with substantially reduced headroom.