Sep 23, 2026 — biggest single-day jump since Apr. 2025
30-YR MORTGAGE RATE
7.61%
1-year high, hitting simultaneously as yields surge
IRAN WAR MUNITIONS COST
$22.3B
flagged by Pentagon IG — fueling deficit fears
OIL PRICE (WTI)
$109
per barrel, driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from under 4% in mid-2025 to 5.13% by Sept. 24, 2026 — a trajectory shaped by the Fed's rate-cutting pause, renewed inflation fears, and war-related fiscal pressures. Dashed yellow lines mark key event dates annotated in the data.
Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 – May 2026)
Kevin Warsh (May 2026 – present)
Key Events
Apr 2, 2025
Liberation Day tariff shock
Tariff announcement triggers largest bond market one-day move until Sept 2026.
Sep 17, 2026
Fed restarts hiking cycle
Federal Reserve raises rates for first time since its multi-year pause, citing persistent stagflation.
Sep 23, 2026
Yield surges +0.15 pp in one day
Largest single-day yield jump since April 2025; 10-year reaches 5.13%.
Explainer
All yield values in percent. Monthly data represents end-of-month or period averages depending on source. FY2026 deficit is a projection inclusive of supplemental appropriations. Oil prices are WTI spot.