Expanded tariffs on Canadian and other imports take effect, raising input costs for manufacturers and construction.
Jun 2026
Iran war energy shock
Diesel and energy prices spike following escalation; operating costs rise across transportation and manufacturing.
Sep 2026
90K — ADP September report
Private payrolls rebound slightly from August but remain well below the 150K healthy-market threshold.
Context
The 150,000 threshold shown in the chart reflects economists' general estimate of the level needed to absorb new labor force entrants and keep unemployment stable. September's 90,000 figure falls well below that floor. The three-month average heading into September declined every month. The official BLS Employment Situation report — covering both public and private employment — is released separately and may diverge from the ADP estimate.